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About jonbirch

animator, illustrator, character designer, graphic designer. music producer/recording musician. co-owner of PROOST. proost.co.uk
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26 Responses to 1022

  1. andyp says:

    What are the odds of that happening? :-)

  2. Kim says:

    at least he can afford to pay to have his teeth fixed :lol:

  3. Tiggy Sagar says:

    I think that’s the ticket flying out, not his teeth!

  4. Carole says:

    …I’ll still take a chance and buy a ticket ;-)

  5. jonbirch says:

    andyp… no idea, but i reckon there will be a ‘googleplex’ in there somewhere… or maybe even ‘graham’s number’. :-)

    carole… just remember when you win that i’ve always liked you. ;-)

  6. goodfield says:

    Aah The good old numbers racket as James Cagney would say. 1930’s crime to 2010 main stream gamble. :-)

  7. subo says:

    after a bad day at work either option seems like the ideal solution

  8. jonbirch says:

    Hmmm subo… That does sound like a bad day. :-(

  9. Andyp says:

    Actually, I’ve been looking into this……

    In 2004 in the UK there were 121 accidents involving buses causing a fatality. (Of course, that is not the same as fatalities of pedestrians being hit by a bus, but we’ll let that go for now). Therefore assuming a UK population of 60 million, each with an equal chance of being killed in some way by a bus, an individual’s odds of being killed by a bus in a given year is greater than 1 in 500,000.

    That is indeed significantly more likely than winning the lottery jackpot (approx 1 in 14 million).
    So, the odds of both happening on the same day:

    The formula would be something like:

    Odds of winning the lottery X odds of being killed by a bus THAT DAY, which equals

    Odds of winning the lottery X odds of being killed by a bus THAT YEAR X 365, which is roughly

    1 in 14,000,000 X 500,000 X 365 = 2,555,000,000,000,000 per day

    Since there are “only” around 5,000,000,000 people on the planet, the odds of it happening to ANYONE (assuming that the odds of lottery jackpots and bus deaths are consistent worldwide) are roughly 1 in 511,000 per day. But then, this is not much more than 1 in 1000 per year….! Suddenly doesn’t seem so unlikely does it?

    Any mathematicians reading, please don’t tear holes in the stats….. I know there are many flaws in the assumptions here, but I thought it would be interesting to crunch some rough numbers…. :-)

    And on a serious note, for those old enough to remember the BSE /vCJD crisis of the late 80s / early 90s will know that there was a massive multi-million pound campaign to rid the UK beef herd of this Bovine Disease and mass panic about the rising numbers of people suffering from a new human brain disease called variant Creutzfeld Jakob Disease, which appeared to be caused by eating infected beef. The numbers were rising “rapidly”, from single figures one year to more than 20 a couple of years later.

    All very well, until it was pointed out that the number dying of vCJD was still lower than the number of people every year who are electrocuted by their own alarm clock.

    Lies, damned lies and statistics.

  10. Carole says:

    Hi Andy…my brain went into a fog after ‘X’ ! ;-)

  11. markk says:

    andyp – 1 in 1000!! i’ve lived for more than 50 years without it happening so that must put it at less than 1 in 20 – and i’ve got to go out tomorrow. oh no! ; )

  12. goodfield says:

    Are the odds of winning the lottery and then being run over by a bus the same as the odds of being run over by a bus then winning the lottery? Over to you AndyP. :-)

  13. Andyp says:

    @markk…… mind how you go!

    @goodfield….. assuming the two events are entirely independent of each other, then yes, the odds are the same. In practice, they probably aren’t.

    For example, although purchasing a (soon-to-be-revealed-as-winning) lottery ticket could not prevent you being run over by a bus, being run over by a bus COULD prevent you buying the relevant ticket. Conversely, it could be argued that in the aftermath of winning the lottery, you might be distracted enough to be more likely to step out in the road in front of a bus.

    So I would conclude that the odds of these two events happening would be different depending on the order, but not in any calculable way!

  14. JF says:

    Andyp – Sorry to be the one to “tear holes” although it is just a tiny one. I liked your exercise. Agreed that the odds of both happening on the same day are 1 in 2,555,000,000,000,000.
    The “1 in 511,000″ is therefore the chance that IF IT HAPPENED, it would be YOU it happened to (not an individual’s odds of experiencing this ASBO-inspired coincidence).

    Some say that the lottery is a tax on the aspirations of the poor. Others say you’ve got to be in it to win it. :-) Me… I never remember to play, which is a shame, as how else will I ever afford that large-ish house in the country… which is about the only thing in this world I ‘covet’ that has a big £ price tag.

  15. jonbirch says:

    very amusing comments. :-)
    i don’t think i know how to do the lottery… i’ve never placed a bet, though sometimes thought about it. i still wish i’d put money on ‘silver birch’ (obvious reasons) for the grand national a couple of years ago… a tasty odds outside winner! oh, hindsight. :-)
    i do, however, enjoy the odd sweepstake with friends and am a dab hand at rolling a cigarette… so i’d like to think i’m a bit bad. :-)

  16. JF says:

    Sorry Andy – you’re right and I am wrong. I misread your post!

    So, once every thousand years someone, somewhere will be hit by a bus on the same day they win the lottery, provided the world population remains constant and they don’t suddenly do away with either buses or lotteries! Is what the stats say! Gotta love stats! :-)

  17. DiaTribe says:

    My mother is opposed to gambling. She has an idea that one day the Lord will reveal to her the winning lottery numbers. Therefore, she says on that day she can buy a ticket and not be gambling for the answer is certain!
    When this happens she has promised to share the winnings withthe family. I am waiting

  18. goodfield says:

    I also think winning the lottery might make you less likely to walk anywhere thus reducing the chances of being run over by a bus should be considered AndyP! :-)

  19. Andyp says:

    Yes indeed, although as I said earlier, the initial statistic for bus deaths is that for all fatalities involving buses (including passengers, bus drivers, drivers of other vehicles etc) not just pedestrians being knocked down. It was however the only starting point I could find, after several seconds of exhaustive research.

  20. Sarah says:

    Ahh that’s just cruel

  21. subo says:

    your interesting stats have left me reflecting about the way things are, i know dreadful, random things happen, but on the whole, stuff hangs together

    and a world in which the sun comes up, the planets align, rain falls and stuff grows in season, something still reminds us we are in the eye of a loving, sustaining God. we can plan, work, build, create and sing. there is enough stability to reach out to those who have been hit by a metaphorical bus. & even without the loto lolly, we can see something of the beauty God’s invested in our world – and respond

    – and we have a God who’s response to the evil that’s marred our world, was to come and join us

    & yup, Jon, there’s been a plenty of bad days since working in my current job – i’m trying to remember i can still choose to live in a world coloured by love, and find enough light to survive till I can change something

  22. Forrest says:

    I like how Andyp’s statement “several seconds of exhaustive research.” is immediately followed by Sarah’s “Ahh that’s just cruel”.

  23. JF says:

    Subo – it’s interesting: the inference that the dreadful stuff is “random” but all the good things are the works of God.

    I don’t get how that works.

  24. Forrest says:

    If it wasn’t for the good of God there would only be dreadful?

  25. subo says:

    ah, yes – thanks JF

    i guess because i believe the universe was created to include the possibility of freewill and genuine responsive love, that also included the possibility of error and evil

    yep, there’s room for randomness, chaos, struggle, isolation. – not because God’s absent, but because he’s let us have a go at driving

  26. JF says:

    Forrest – I take that as a rhetorical question, pointing out the absurdity of that view? Am I right?

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